US poll series part 6: Trump is winning political, Harris personality argument

Donald Trump is winning the political argument on the economy, on wars, on immigration, and on pedagogy around sexuality. Kamala Harris is winning the personality argument on Trump’s lack of temperament for office. As voting proceeds in America, the political argument appears stronger than the personality argument.
In the past week, HT travelled to two swing states, and six counties in both urban and rural areas, and interviewed close to 150 voters across the ethnic, gender, and generational divide.
The polarisation of American society and the peculiarity of the American election system means that both candidates already have about 47% of the vote and will get their share of red and blue states. So even before the race for the 270 electoral college begins, both sides can safely assume they have about 220 electoral college votes each. This piece is not a predictive essay on the outcome, which will hinge on the mood of a limited number of voters, on a set of limited variables such as turnout, in a limited set of geographies. Instead, it offers a broad assessment of the mood on the ground based on the conversations that Americans are having among themselves with 10 days to go before the end of polling.
Four issues are propelling the Trump campaign.
The first is the economy. Reminiscent of an earlier Ronald Reagan campaign, Republicans are asking voters a simple question—are you better off now than four years ago? The answer for most people is no, primarily because of the combination of grocery, gas, and housing prices. The Joe Biden-Harris administration has delivered one of the strongest economic performances in recent history, including high employment and record manufacturing. But the cost of living crisis, and the fact that Trump is associated more closely with the jobs in America agenda, has meant that Democrats haven’t been able to take credit. Indeed, it is almost annoying if someone tells you, when your wallet doesn’t reflect it, that you would have been even worse off if Democrats hadn’t done all they did. And Harris’s promises of more support to address costs seem hollow coming from a semi-incumbent. The bottom line then for many voters is Trump was better for the economy.
The second is immigration. The Republican message on the ground is simple. Should the US have open borders? Hasn’t there been a spurt of illegal immigrants? Isn’t this unsafe? The answer, for most voters, is that the US should have secure borders, people shouldn’t be able to come in illegally, and yes there has been a spurt in illegal entrants and that’s not right. With Trump associated with the anti-immigration agenda, he then can position himself as a leader who understands the problems and can solve them. Democrats rightly argue that Trump torpedoed a border bill, but that makes him seem even more central to resolving the problem. Democrats hope that their position will help them win the votes of legal immigrants and that voters can see the racism lurking behind Trump’s rhetoric; that’s largely true but it is also true that legal immigrants are happy to close the doors behind them. The bottom line is that immigration is a top issue and Trump is seen as having both diagnosed it, articulated it, and positioned himself as the key to resolving it.
The third issue is wars. Once again, Republicans have a simple pitch. Did Russia attack Ukraine under Trump? Is Europe’s security American responsibility? Did Hamas launch a terror strike against Israel under Trump? Did Iran’s proxies destabilise West Asia under Trump? Did Trump withdraw from Afghanistan in a way that caused the death of American soldiers? Did America get entangled in so many foreign wars under Trump? The answer, simplistic as it may be, is no. And when the answer is no, the Republican messaging seamlessly flows into the next step; only a strong leader such as Trump can keep America out of wars and restore order. The subtext often is that while Biden caused chaos, a woman leader definitely can’t bring peace. Democrats offer nuanced arguments on why Ukraine is important, why Trump made a mistake by walking out of the Iranian nuclear deal, how the US has supported Israel, how the Afghanistan exit was due to a flawed Trump deal, why Europe is critical for American security, how no American troops are fighting in any war, and how American prestige will erode under Trump. But for voters, the bottom line is Trump kept the peace and Biden didn’t.
The fourth issue can be broadly summed up as the shift in cultural and sexual mores that large parts of America are still grappling with. The Republican message is simple again; aren’t there only two genders, men and women? Should men be playing in women’s sports? Should teachers and schools be allowed to introduce sexuality into primary and middle school? Do you know your kid could return one day with a sex-change surgery? The simplistic, crude, and often false manner in which Republicans make the argument obscures that parents aren’t losing control over children, no kid is coming back with a gender reassignment surgery done, and the conversations around sexuality are aimed at normalising the different kinds of families that inhabit American society. However, examples of excess and misinformation have triggered the most basic fears that a parent can have. Democrats offer solidarity with the wider community of sexual minorities but haven’t done the work needed to prepare society and are now leaving the Republican challenge unanswered. The bottom line is that many are uncomfortable with the pedagogy around sexuality and Trump has leveraged it in politically beneficial ways.
Democrats know they aren’t winning the political argument on these issues. And that is why in the final fortnight, they have doubled down on the one political issue they have an edge—abortion rights—but mostly focused on making a personality-centric argument.
Their argument is simple: Trump is extreme, he is unstable, he is getting more unhinged with age, his top advisors and generals have called him Fascist, his former vice President hasn’t endorsed him, and this man can’t be trusted with unchecked power and both American constitutionalism and democracy are at risk. This resonates with many voters worried about the danger Trump represents, even if they agree with some of his policies. In response, Republicans tell the base that Trump’s personality is proof of his non-conformism while seeking to persuade undecided voters that they should ignore Trump’s rhetoric and, with a healthy dose of revisionist history laced in, look back at his record.
On the ground, Trump’s politics has an edge. This election now hinges on whether Trump’s personality lands him 270 votes or stops him from it.